Scenario simulator — Real Estate Investment Insights

Bull/base/bear is only as honest as the width

If your bear case is “appreciation slows from 3% to 1%,” you modeled a mild mood, not a vacancy plus an insurance shock plus a rate that does not refi. Useful bands for a five-year hold on a small rental:

• Bear: 8–10 weeks vacant in year one, insurance +30–50%, 0% rent growth, no sale-price pop, and (if you plan to pull cash out) a rate that does not cooperate.
• Base: your document-based expenses, 3–5% vacancy, modest rent growth you can defend with leases in that ZIP — not a national headline.
• Bull: the value-add you can actually fund, not a kitchen you have not bid.

The on-page simulation may ask a model to invent IRRs. Recalculate total cash in / cash out yourself. IRR theater is how thin deals get a passing grade. Pair with the payment math so the debt service is not a guess inside the story.

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